Continuing with our previous article where we discussed the predictions for the 2024 tennis season overall and by venue, we will now look at the best (most predictable) tennis tournaments of 2024. We use the same method to calculate returns, betting $1 on each match in the tournament.
While the data is incomplete (some tournaments are missing) and we are unable to compare this data to previous seasons (as we plan to do next year), we still believe these insights can provide valuable guidance to help you make better betting decisions.
Top ATP tournaments ranked by odds predictions
We'll look at the results of two forecasting methods: by odds and by form. Of the 39 ATP events we analyzed, the most profitable was ATP Gstaad with a yield of 29.81%.
If we look closely at the prediction success rate for the ATP Gstaad matches (available on the prediction check page), we see that the prediction success rate is over 85%, with some rounds reaching 100% success (quarterfinals), and semi-finals It fails completely.
You might be wondering how ATP Gstaad managed to do so well when the entire round of predictions was incorrect. Yield represents the return on your bet; in this case, the semifinals only have two losing games.
This minimal loss did not have a significant impact on the overall profit of the tournament, resulting in a very good overall gain. If we can identify a pattern here, it would mean that prediction success rates above 75% might be worth considering for positive returns.
Grand Slam Yield: Odds and Form Predictions
The only Grand Slam to generate a positive return in 2024 is Wimbledon, with a modest 2.34% yield. For bettors who rely on predictions, this makes it a standout among the majors.
Roland Garros came in second, although with a yield of -0.32%, it barely broke even. The U.S. Open follows closely behind at -1.7%, reflecting an event where predicting the outcome is more challenging.
Best matches on the WTA Tour
Odds predictions achieved the best results on the WTA in Rome, with a staggering 23% yield. Other outperformers include WTA Washington (13.11% yield) and WTA Hong Kong (7.38% yield).
Form-based predictions were also successful at the WTA Rome, with a yield of 21.6%, confirming its consistency as the most predictable event of the 2024 season. Other standout events include the WTA Bad Homburg (18.41% yield) and WTA Jiujiang (11.54% yield).
Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam tournament to post a positive return under odds predictions (0.33%). The French Open and US Open both show negative returns under both methods, with pattern predictions performing worse than odds.
What to do about negative performance? Tournaments like WTA Budapest and WTA Osaka have resulted in significant losses in both approaches, highlighting their unpredictability. There was also a big difference at WTA Bad Homburg, with form-based predictions doing well (18.41% yield) and odds-based predictions struggling (-24.46% yield).
Unpredictable times on the ATP and WTA Tours
We then analyzed the periods with the best or worst returns using a pay-to-the-odds calculation. While we were unable to identify periods of the year when returns were consistently positive, we did uncover some interesting insights.
In ATP events, the most unpredictable period is the summer, because events held during this period often experience varying degrees of upsets.
On the WTA Tour, the most unpredictable period occurs between late August and late October and is characterized by consistently negative yields.
Here are the ATP and WTA schedules
The 2024 tennis season reveals a clear trend towards overall predictability in the tournament. While no period offers consistently positive returns, certain events, such as ATP Geneva and WTA Rome, stand out for their reliability. These insights can help guide smarter betting strategies in the future. Use these findings to refine your approach to the upcoming tournament, and stay tuned for our player-based analysis for the 2024 season.
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